Moviefone Predicts Who Will Win an Oscar at the 2024 Academy Awards
Will ‘Oppenheimer’ continue its winning streak? Will Cillian Murphy beat Paul Giamatti? We'll find out on March 10th at the 96th Academy Awards.
(Left) Cillian Murphy is J. Robert Oppenheimer in 'Oppenheimer,' written, produced, and directed by Christopher Nolan. (Left Center) Lily Gladstone in 'Killers of the Flower Moon,' coming soon to Apple TV+. (Right Center) Robert Downey Jr is Lewis Strauss in 'Oppenheimer,' written, produced, and directed by Christopher Nolan. (Right) Da’Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb in director Alexander Payne’s 'The Holdovers,' a Focus Features release. Credit: Seacia Pavao / © 2023 FOCUS FEATURES LLC.
The 96th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 10th and with it will come the end of the 2024 award season.
Jimmy Kimmel is once again set to host, with scheduled presenters including last year’s winners Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, Brendan Fraser and Ke Huy Quan, as well as former Oscar winners Nicolas Cage, Jessica Lange, Sam Rockwell, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong'o, and Al Pacino.
Nominated films include two of the biggest blockbusters of last year, ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie,’ as well as critically acclaimed movies like ‘The Holdovers,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ ‘Poor Things,’ and ‘Maestro.’
While ‘Oppenheimer’ seems poised to have a big night, and Robert Downey Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph are virtual locks in their supporting categories, Best Actor is still a two-man race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, with the Best Actress category too close to call between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone.
Below are our predictions for who will win Oscars on Sunday at the 96th Academy Awards. We are only breaking down our predictions for the six major categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
Let’s Begin!
BEST PICTURE
Cillian Murphy is J. Robert Oppenheimer in 'Oppenheimer,' written, produced, and directed by Christopher Nolan.
This is probably the easiest category to call as it's obvious that ‘Oppenheimer’ will win Best Picture. The film has won every major award so far including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and a SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast.
Considering the movie’s critical acclaim, box office achievements, domination during award season, and the overall love for director Christopher Nolan, it would seem like this is finally his year to win Best Picture and Best Director, but more on that in a minute.
While many fans are probably rooting for ‘Barbie’ to pull out a win, it doesn’t seem very likely at this point. ‘Oppenheimer’s biggest competition is probably ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ ‘Poor Things’ and possibly ‘The Holdovers,’ but again, it seems very unlikely that any of them will ultimately be able to best Nolan’s movie.
Nominees:
- ‘American Fiction’
- ‘Anatomy of a Fall’
- ‘Barbie’
- ‘The Holdovers’
- ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
- ‘Maestro’
- ‘Oppenheimer’
- ‘Past Lives’
- ‘Poor Things’
- ‘The Zone of Interest’
Who Will Win: ‘Oppenheimer’
Who Could Win: 'Killers of the Flower Moon’ or ‘Poor Things’
BEST DIRECTOR
Writer, director, and producer Christopher Nolan on the set of 'Oppenheimer.'
If Best Picture is the easiest category to predict this year, then Best Director is the second easiest. Again, this is Christopher Nolan’s year!
Having won a Golden Globe, a Critics Choice Award, and the all-important DGA Award, Nolan is all but a lock to win his long-overdue first Best Director Oscar.
Nolan’s biggest competition is probably a nostalgia win from legendary filmmaker Martin Scorsese, or a surprise win from ‘Poor Things’ Yorgos Lanthimos, but neither seem very likely. It would be quite a shock if Nolan does not end up winning this award.
Nominees:
- Justine Triet, ‘Anatomy of a Fall’
- Martin Scorsese, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
- Christopher Nolan, ‘Oppenheimer’
- Yorgos Lanthimos, ‘Poor Things’
- Jonathan Glazer, ‘The Zone of Interest’
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan, ‘Oppenheimer’
Who Could Win: Martin Scorsese, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy is J. Robert Oppenheimer in 'Oppenheimer,' written, produced, and directed by Christopher Nolan.
As mentioned earlier, this has become a two-man race between ‘Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy and ‘The Holdover’s Paul Giamatti.
Since the Golden Globes puts comedic performances in a separate category, both actors won, however Giamatti bested Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards. It seemed like Giamatti was the frontrunner, but with Murphy recently winning the all-important SAG award, I think this is now Murphy’s award to lose.
Since the actor’s branch of the Academy is who votes for this award, and they are also SAG members, you never want to bet against the SAG winner, as it is almost always a precursor of who will win on Oscar night. That doesn’t mean Giamatti is completely out, but the momentum is no longer on his side and with ‘Oppenheimer’ poised to have a big night, Murphy seems like the clear choice at this point.
Nominees:
- Bradley Cooper, ‘Maestro’
- Colman Domingo, ‘Rustin’
- Paul Giamatti, ‘The Holdovers’
- Cillian Murphy, ‘Oppenheimer’
- Jeffrey Wright, ‘American Fiction’
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy, ‘Oppenheimer’
Who Could Win: Paul Giamatti, ‘The Holdovers’
BEST ACTRESS
(L to R) JaNae Collins, Lily Gladstone, Cara Jade Myers and Jillian Dion in 'Killers of the Flower Moon,' coming soon to Apple TV+.
In another category that seems too close to call, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone has a slight edge over ‘Poor Things’ Emma Stone.
Again, because the Golden Globes separates comedic and dramatic performances, both actresses won. But Stone won the Critics Choice Award, putting her in the frontrunner’s seat.
However, Gladstone recently won the all-important SAG Award, and again, since it’s basically the same group that votes for this category, I’d say she is now the frontrunner.
There has been some talk that Gladstone’s role is really a supporting performance, and that could hurt her chances of winning. But since Stone already has a Best Actress trophy for her work in ‘La La Land,’ I think Gladstone will end up being triumphant and that’s how the Academy will reward Scorsese’s movie.
Nominees:
- Annette Bening, ‘Nyad’
- Lily Gladstone, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
- Sandra Hüller, ‘Anatomy of a Fall’
- Carey Mulligan, ‘Maestro’
- Emma Stone, ‘Poor Things’
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
Who Could Win: Emma Stone, ‘Poor Things’
Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr is Lewis Strauss in 'Oppenheimer,' written, produced, and directed by Christopher Nolan.
This is an easy category to call, as this is clearly Robert Downey Jr.’s year too!
Having won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG Award, Downey has virtually no competition in this category and with ‘Oppenheimer’ poised to sweep most of its categories, Downey’s win is all but locked.
A surprise upset could possibly come from Ryan Gosling for his work in ‘Barbie,’ but it’s not very likely and it seems that Downey will be rewarded not only for ‘Oppenheimer’ but also for his famous career comeback and work creating the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Nominees:
- Sterling K. Brown, ‘American Fiction’
- Robert De Niro, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’
- Robert Downey Jr., ‘Oppenheimer’
- Ryan Gosling, ‘Barbie’
- Mark Ruffalo, ‘Poor Things’
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., ‘Oppenheimer’
Who Could Win: Ryan Gosling, ‘Barbie’
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph stars as Mary Lamb in director Alexander Payne’s 'The Holdovers,' a Focus Features release. Credit: Seacia Pavao / © 2023 FOCUS FEATURES LLC.
In another locked category, Da’Vine Joy Randolph should end up winning for her work in ‘The Holdovers.’
Randolph has been winning all season, taking home a Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG Award for her work. This is probably how the Academy will reward Alexander Payne’s ‘The Holdovers,’ especially if Murphy ends up beating Giamatti.
She could have some competition from Emily Blunt, especially if ‘Oppenheimer’ sweeps, but otherwise it’s safe to say that Randolph should be practicing her acceptance speech now.
Nominees:
- Emily Blunt, ‘Oppenheimer’
- Danielle Brooks, ‘The Color Purple’
- America Ferrera, ‘Barbie’
- Jodie Foster, ‘Nyad’
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph, ‘The Holdovers’
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, ‘The Holdovers’
Who Could Win: Emily Blunt, ‘Oppenheimer’
Don’t forget to watch the 96th Academy Award ceremony Sunday, March 10th on ABC.
The 94th Oscars®. Photo credit: Blaine Ohigashi / A.M.P.A.S.
Related Article: ‘Oppenheimer’, ‘Barbie’ and ‘Poor Things’ Among The 2024 Oscar Nominees
